china boosting global economy recovery
citizens and tourists go shopping for leisure in wuhan, the capital city of hubei province on may 29. (photo: vcg)
edited by qi liming
the world bank predicted that growth in developing east asia and the pacific is forecast to accelerate in 2023, as china's economy gains momentum. imf also reported that as asia is poised to drive global economic growth, china is a relative bright spot amid the more somber context of the global economy's rocky recovery.
steven rattner, a counselor to the treasury secretary in the obama administration, said after a visit to beijing that despite the western press displaying increasing skepticism, "i believe china will continue to prosper."
"china's economic performance has been far superior to our own (the united states). from the beginning of 2020 until the end of last year, china's economy grew a cumulative 14 percent after adjusting for inflation, while ours has expanded by less than six percent," added rattner.
growth of china is projected to reach 5.2 percent this year, compared with 1.6 percent for the u.s. "and while we battle an inflation rate stubbornly above four percent, china's prices will most likely rise by just two percent this year. as a consequence, interest rates remain low, helping encourage investment," he said.
according to ing think, a global economic analysis and forecast website, china's domestic economy is thriving. strong internal tourism during the golden week holiday in early may indicates that the domestic economy has rebounded, and we are seeing clear signs that china's domestic economy has recovered, it said.
retail sales and catering increased by 18.9 percent year-on-year during the golden week holiday. in terms of internal tourism, there were 274 million trips made during this year's golden week, a 40 percent increase from the 195 million trips made during the same period in 2019.
it is estimated that the domestic recovery could be more obvious during the summer holidays. consumers are starting to fire up china's economy, two exchange traded funds experts find. "we're seeing the incremental rebound from the chinese consumer," kraneshares' chief investment officer brendan ahern said on may 27.
ahern expects quarterly earnings for chinese companies to improve with each consecutive quarter: a forecast that may already be unfolding. "we're actually hearing that for many of the companies, in the management calls, they're speaking about how q2 already is outpacing q1, which outpaced q4 of last year," he said.
china's lifting of covid-19 restrictions is also anticipated to have a positive impact on the airline industry. singapore airlines, japan's all nippon airways, and japan airlines all noted demand from china as a factor in future earnings, while reporting net profits earlier in may for the financial year ended march 2023. graniteshares' will rhind sees a similar growth trajectory.
consumption has led china's economic growth so far this year. "the combination of a steady uptick in consumer confidence, as well as the still-incomplete release of pent-up demand, suggest to us that the consumer-led recovery still has room to run," said economist louise loo.
